Fresh migration calculation pushes up population projection for Southwark

There may be more than one thousand more people living in Southwark over the next five years than previously thought, according to new figures.

By 2024, the population may climb to 337,169, 1,312 more than the previous projections by the Office for National Statistics.

The ONS produced the new figures using a different formula to calculate levels of migration – from overseas, and people moving between different areas within England.

Researchers looked at migration trends over a 10-year period rather than the five years of data previously studied. The projections look at past trends and do not attempt to predict the consequences of future events, such as the impact of Brexit on international migration levels.

The ONS says these calculations illustrate alternative future sizes and age structure of the population. They do not replace the previous population estimates, published last year, but should be used alongside them.

Across England, the greatest increase in population in the new figures is in Ealing where there may be 11,297 more residents by 2024. Liverpool, on the other hand, may have 14,949 fewer than indicated in previous projections.

The Local Government Association, which represents councils, said that local authorities used ONS projects to help them understand how the population in their area may change. Most councils use their own data alongside the projections.

A spokesperson said: “Population projections are an important tool in planning for the delivery of future services, such as education or social care.

“However, councils know that projections are not precise forecasts and that planning for future provision of services always needs to cover a range of scenarios.”

Looking further ahead, the population of Southwark is projected to be 347,784 in 10 years’ time. That is 1,781 more than the previous analysis.

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